Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2025 is based on original research produced for Lloyd’s by the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School.
The innovative metric GDP@Risk was created as part of its research and allows a greater depth of data analysis than has been possible previously.
- Executive Summary
- Download Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2025 Executive Summary for more information regarding the Index.
- Methodology
- Further information on the GDP@Risk metric and other calculations made in the research is available in the methodology.
Terminology
- GDP@Risk
- The expected loss to a selected location’s economic output from a single threat or threat category.
- Total GDP@Risk
The expected loss to a selected location’s economic output from all 18 threats. Its calculation combines the likelihood of events occurring during the period 2015 to 2025 with the loss of GDP that would result. - Average annual GDP
- The annual economic output of a selected location calculated by averaging GDP projections from 2015 to 2025.
- % of Average annual GDP
- The expected loss to a selected location’s economic output from all 18 threats as a percentage of its Average annual GDP.
- GDP@Risk: All cities
- The sum of GDP@Risk for the selected threat or threat category for all 301 cities included in the study.
- GDP@Risk: Top 5 threats
- The five threats with the highest GDP@Risk for the selected location.
- GDP@Risk: Top 5/Top 20 cities
- The 5/20 cities with the highest GDP@Risk figures for the selected threat or threat category. In tables, these cities are listed in descending order of these GDP@Risk figures.
Classification
- Accuracy of figures
- Any apparent inconsistencies between GDP@Risk data and their respective percentages, and between sum totals and their respective data, are due to the rounding of all figures to two decimal places.
- Cities
- The 301 cities have been selected because of their significance to global GDP: together, they are expected to produce about half of the world’s GDP in 2015 and around two thirds by 2025.
- City factsheet analysis
- Among the 301 cities, 50 feature analysis of their GDP@Risk in the city factsheets. They have been selected on the basis of their national economic importance and their relevance to Lloyd’s.
- City rankings by country
- These tables list the Total GDP@Risk of each city in the 50 countries with the highest aggregate Total GDP@Risk.
- Currency
- All $ values included in the site are US$.
- Emerging economies
- Emerging economies are defined as any countries that fall outside the G8 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, US).
- Regions
- The 301 cities are grouped into ten regions based on Lloyd’s interpretation of the United Nations Geoscheme.
- Threats
- The selection of threats is based on a taxonomy developed by the Centre for Risk Studies.
- Threat categories
- The 18 threats are grouped as follows:
- Manmade threats
- Cyber attack, Market crash, Nuclear accident, Oil price shock, Power outage, Sovereign default, Terrorism
- Natural threats
Drought, Earthquake, Flood, Freeze, Heatwave, Human pandemic, Plant epidemic, Solar storm, Tsunami, Volcano, Wind storm - Emerging threats
Cyber attack, Human pandemic, Plant epidemic, Solar storm
Note: while Solar storm is not an emerging threat, our vulnerability to the risks it poses is.
Disclaimer
Lloyd’s City Risk Index 2015-2025 is a product of a research collaboration between Lloyd’s and the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School.
This Index has been produced by, and/or on behalf of, Lloyd's for general information purposes only. While care has been taken in gathering the data and preparing the Index, Lloyd’s does not make any representations or warranties as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly excludes to the maximum extent permitted by law all those that might otherwise be implied.
Lloyd’s accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage of any nature occasioned to any person as a result of acting or refraining from acting as a result of, or in reliance on, any statement, fact, figure or expression of opinion or belief contained in this Index. This Index does not constitute advice of any kind.
© Lloyd’s 2015. All rights reserved.
Credits
All city and case study images: Getty Images.
Except case studies landing page image: Corbis.
